Nigeria needs to grow GDP by 40%, FX at N500/$ to attain $1trn economy.
Nigeria needs to grow its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 per cent in 2025 and next year, or its foreign exchange to trade at N500 per dollar, with a real growth of 5 per cent to quadruple its economy in the next five years, according to Afrinvest West Africa.
President Bola Tinubu has rolled out various market reforms, including scrapping fuel subsidies, floating the naira and overhauling the country’s tax system in a move aimed at boosting the country’s economy, projecting real growth at 7 per cent by 2027 and an ambitious target of hitting a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
“For a 7.0 percent real growth from 2027 to push the economy to $1.0tn by 2030, nominal GDP size must have surpassed $800.0bn by 2026-year-end – implying nominal growth of no less than 40.0 percent in each of 2025 and 2026,” Afrinvest West Africa said in a recent report.
“Alternatively, assuming a real GDP growth cap of 5.0 percent for 2025/2026 (based on world bank and IMF estimate), the naira/USD rate would need to strengthen to above N500.00/$ level from 2027 for the President’s call to crystalise.”
Nigeria is doubling down efforts to revamp its economy and spur growth in key sectors, in what has seen its GDP expand by more than 30 per cent to N372.48 trillion after the rebasing exercise.
However, the country’s economy shrank in dollar terms to the lowest level in a decade to $251 billion due to the steep devaluation of the naira, raising concerns as to the feasibility of the trillion-dollar projection.
Source: Businessday