Russian oil price in roubles has stayed below the 2025 budget target.
The average Russian oil price calculated in roubles has stayed below the federal budget’s target for 2025, Reuters calculations showed on Wednesday, adding pressure to the budget that already faces a rising deficit.
The weakness is largely the result of a stronger rouble, which has risen around 45% since the start of the year on the basis of an easing in geopolitical tensions and the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank.
International oil prices priced in dollars, at the same time have lost about 10% of their value.
According to the estimations, the average price of Russia’s oil blend, calculated for taxation purposes, reached 4,701 roubles per barrel in the first two weeks of July, around steady with June’s level but 11.1% below the updated budget’s target.
The finance ministry said last week the budget deficit reached 3.69 trillion roubles ($47.31 billion), or 1.7% of gross domestic product, in the first half of the year, the same as expected for the full year.
Russia raised the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of GDP in April from 0.5% after reducing the energy revenue forecast by 24% in anticipation of a prolonged period of lower oil prices.
State spending on national defence was hiked by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, the highest since the Cold War, as the country continued its war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Economic uncertainty and increased output from OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, has weighed on oil markets.
Source: Globalbankingandfinance