IMF raises Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025 .
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.4%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the 3.0% projection in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
This revision, outlined in the IMF’s latest July 2025 WEO Update, signals renewed optimism about Nigeria’s near-term economic prospects despite global uncertainties and domestic macroeconomic challenges.
The update shows that Nigeria is expected to maintain this 3.4% growth in 2025, followed by a slightly lower 3.2% growth rate in 2026, which itself is a 0.5 percentage point upward revision from the IMF’s April forecast.
These upgrades reflect a broader improvement in the global outlook, driven by more favourable financial conditions, a temporary easing in tariff pressures, and resilient trade activity.
The Fund’s projection still places Nigeria ahead of South Africa but below the broader Sub-Saharan African region average growth. South Africa’s growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026, while Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, with only a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point revision, respectively.
This revision comes against the backdrop of slightly stronger global economic prospects. The IMF expects global growth to reach 3.0% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the April WEO, driven largely by a temporary boost in trade and investment ahead of anticipated tariff hikes.
The IMF attributed much of the global and regional optimism to front-loaded trade activity and lower-than-expected effective tariff rates, particularly between the United States and China. These dynamics have created favourable external conditions for emerging markets like Nigeria, improving capital flows and tempering inflationary pressures.
Source: Nairametrics