More European refineries struggle as Dangote ramps up output.
More European refiners are facing increasing pressure from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery as it ramps up production and curtails gasoline exports from Europe to West Africa, a development that could force closures of vulnerable refining plants across the continent.
Since it began production in September 2024, Africa’s largest refinery, the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dangote facility located near Lagos has steadily increased its output, significantly reducing West Africa’s reliance on imported petrol.
Industry data seen by BusinessDay showed European gasoline exports to the region have dropped sharply, with volumes to West Africa from Europe falling to 285,000 bpd in the January–July 2025 period, a one-thirds reduction compared to the same period last year.
According to industry data, the Dangote refinery received a record 595,000 bpd of crude in July alone, highlighting the speed with which the plant is scaling up to full operational capacity.
This development has had a direct impact on European refiners, particularly those with a production bias toward gasoline.
Argus Media, an independent energy and commodity price benchmarks provider, said Nigeria, which previously accounted for one in every five barrels of gasoline sold by European refiners, now takes just one in 10.
Owned by US firm Prax, Lindsey was producing 50,000 bpd of gasoline before its closure in July 2025. A failed attempt to sell the refinery further underscored the severity of the situation.
According to Valero, another US refiner, the shortfall from Lindsey will be covered by moving petrol production to its Pembroke refinery in Wales, which has more flexible capabilities. But for many other European refiners, that kind of adaptation may not be an option.
Analysts warn that if an additional 600,000 bpd of refining capacity is not shuttered or diverted to alternative products, the petrol glut could worsen. West Africa, historically a key export market, is becoming self-sufficient, and European refiners are now competing for limited demand in other markets.
This threat is particularly acute for older and less complex refineries that rely on stable petrol exports to remain profitable. Unlike newer, integrated refineries like Dangote, which can flexibly shift between products based on market dynamics, many European plants are locked into fixed production modes.
Even among European refineries that have survived the past decade’s margin pressures, including from the rise of US shale and Middle East megaprojects, the current environment may prove too challenging. According to Argus, European refining capacity has already fallen below 100,000 bpd in some regions, and more reductions are likely if the gasoline market doesn’t rebalance.
Source: Businessdayng